Morin’s Last Stand
First man – “I think, I think I am, I think.”
Establishment – “Of course you are my bright little star. I have miles and miles of files, pretty files of your forefather’s fruit. And now to suit our great computer, your magnetic ink.”
First man – “I’m more than that, I know I am, at least, I think I must be.”
Inner man – “There you go man, keep as cool as you can. Face piles and piles of trials with smiles. It riles them to believe that you perceive the web the weave, and keep on thinking free.” – Graeme Edge
By Rich Lindbloom
In 1969, the Royalty of Rock released the critically acclaimed album On the Threshold of a Dream. It was an exquisite piece of music by the reconstructed Moody Blues, hitting #1 in the charts in Great Britain. The album cover is a trip in itself. The opening dialogue I included above, featured a very mechanical like sound, dubbed over Graeme Edge’s antagonistic like voice. Not exactly Darth Vader, but close. Think along the lines of Pink Floyd’s Welcome to the Machine. So just what does a song from 1969 have to do with hockey – I’m glad you asked!
If you’ve been following hockey at all this summer, you’d have to be just about brain dead not to have noticed the strong push in hockey towards “Advanced Metrics.” (Cue in the mechanical sounds) Yes, Money Puck has wormed its way into the collective psyche of hockey GM’s and zealous fans; fans who file away every bit of information they can in their “great computer.” While certainly interesting and beneficial, I’m not so sure the conclusions drawn from analyzing such data are the Gospel truth. (Although admittedly, I’ve never been too good at ciphering.)
Jen LC, has provided numerous, in depth, statistical analyses on the Second City Hockey and The Committed Indian blog sites for sexually frustrated Blackhawk fans. Every time I try to read and understand one of her statistical breakdowns, my brain starts to swell. I’m beginning to think she is the reincarnation of Gwyneth Paltrow in the outstanding movie Proof. Now, I’m not saying Jen is crazy, but the movie does explore the link between genius and madness. Despite her cerebral analysis, there are times when I think Jen should be stuffed in the lockers with Hockee Night’s Mathletes.
“We love math!”
All I know is when Jen did a statistical breakdown on Corey Crawford, the stats pointed to a mediocre goalie who doesn’t stop the shots from prime scoring chance areas with the elite goalies in the league. Blasphemy! Damn it, I don’t care if it’s true or not. My foolproof eye test says otherwise! Like physics, which has been accused of taking the color out of the rainbow, over analyzing hockey can take the innate beauty out of the game.
I think the most important stat for Cor-dawg is the one that matters; he is a winner. My head wants to explode when someone tries to say he is a mediocre goalie, blessed to be playing on a great team. The eye test tells me that Crawford has excelled in the playoffs, often times bailing out his adventuresome forwards and meandering defenseman. He must have made a critical save or two if Patrick Kane, moments after receiving the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2013 said the trophy should have went to Mr. Mediocre.
Lost in Jen’s stats are factors such as rebounds, who is shooting the puck (obviously, Kaner rifling a wrist shot from the “home plate area” – see Jen, I do actually read your analysis – has a higher chance of success than a grinder throwing the puck into a goalies midriff, eh?); how much time a player has to pick a spot; is the attacker on the fly; is the goalie being aware of the possibility of a pass to another player? It made me think about how while stats do tell part of the story, they will never be as effective in hockey as they are in baseball. The eye test is not as whimsical as many suggest.
I had to smile when Paul the Fossil gave me a gentle rebuke for saying the eye test is the best measure of a player’s ability. Whywasalreadytaken even let me off more gently, stating that “An average goalie in the NHL is among the top 20 people in the world at his profession.” I think he may have been saying Crow is good, although in the true Irish tradition, he may have been telling me to “Go to Hell,” in such a manner that I would enjoy the ride.
At any rate, one stat that is near impossible to measure was pointed out by a friend – “The Switch.” It’s largely an eye test analysis, one where you can actually see the results. I truly believe the proverbial “Switch” has been activated in Jeremy (Jet) Morin’s game. I noticed it at two IceHog games last year, when Morin was clearly the best player on the ice. My friend brought up this “Switch” point up when I asked him how good he thought Nick Schmaltz, Blackhawk’s #1 pick, could eventually become.
He noted that Nick was in the vein of a Mikita-like forward, quickly pointing out he didn’t say “like” Mikita! He said both he and his brother, Jordan – selected 25th in the 2012 draft by the Blues, are gifted players, quick and deceptively fast. He did note that he thought there’s still another proverbial “switch” that both will have to turn on to reach their full potential.
He also noted that turning that switch on means making an extraordinary commitment, (it’s hard to get by on talent alone as one advances up the food chain), stating that’s true of all hockey players to a greater or lesser degree. “Only the player himself can flip that switch…and not all do.” He added that both he and his brother, Jordan, do have the tools/gifts to be high-end professional hockey players, and believes the next step will happen for them.
This same friend is well acquainted with Jeremy Morin – “Jet, as he was known back then, was an unbelievable bantam (U14) hockey player, with absolutely phenomenal hands and game instincts.” Clearly, it’s a testament to how amazing the players in the NHL are that he’s just on the cusp of becoming a regular in the league.
Has Jeremy Morin finally flipped on that “switch?” – that seems to be the million dollar question as we enter the 2014/15 NHL season. As the Clash’s lead singer Joe Strummer might sing, “Should he stay or should he go.” If he stays, I think there will be trouble for other NHL teams. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind, (even if it is only based on the eye test), that Jeremy will be playing for some NHL team this season. I believe he is a 25 goal, 25 assist, I will kick your ass, type player.
I’d like to read a statistical breakdown of Morin’s game by Jen. Would it confirm or dispel the eye test? The only stats that I could conjure up were those on Wikipedia, which are by no means are advanced metrics. Morin’s detractor’s actually seem to rely on the eye test themselves. They claim Coach Q’s reluctance to play him in the playoffs and his woeful lack of defensive responsibility prove there are major faults in “Jet’s” game.
That last observation would seem to be somewhat dispelled by Jeremy’s career +/- statistic. Even though I believe this stat is dependent on many uncontrollable factors, he is firmly entrenched on the positive side of the ledger on every team he’s played for. I have not studied his positional play like some people have, but the eye test tells me Morin is a defensively responsible forward. He plays a gritty style of hockey and does not shy away from physical contact. (His clean check on Roman Josi last year is a prime example – fortunately, Josi was not injured as he was sent helicoptering towards the boards.)
Morin has also been a prolific scorer at all levels he has played at, usually tallying as many goals as assists. (i.e. he’s a sniper who can light the lamp) He has excelled in international competition, medaling in every tournament he’s played, including the gold medals in the 2010 World Junior championship and the 2009 IIHF World U18 Championship. In the latter tournament, Jeremy was tenth in scoring, notching 7 goals and 3 assists.
I loved Wikipedia’s description of him;
“Morin was known as a goal scorer in Juniors. He has the ability to shoot from anywhere and find open space to shoot. He goes to the front of the net and finds space to score. He possesses a quick release that accompanies a solid shot. Morin is considered a gritty player for a goal scorer, he plays hard and has a bit of an edge to his game. He plays a solid all-around game, possesses a high hockey IQ, and competes every shift.”
The almost always infallible “eye test” confirms every observation in that description. Gritty and a bit of an edge are great ways to describe Morin’s play. Take a look at his career penalty minutes (he has spent a lot of time in the sin bin contemplating his truculent style of play) – while that total may get a player in Q’s doghouse, eye test hockey fans love aggressiveness. When all else fails, Hit Someone!
Jet joined a line with Bryan Bickell and Peter Regin that for whatever reason just plain clicked at the end of the season. They stepped it up when our prima-donnas took a month off to lick their wounds. All three players have spent time in Coach Q’s doghouse. While I highly doubt that they will be joined together this year, the “Doghouse Line” was one of our best at the end of the season. Certainly, they were fun to watch, consistently sealing the puck in enemy territory.
If you can’t tell by now, I’m a big fan of Jeremy Morin. His style of play reminds a bit of Steve Ludzik, although he seems to have a bit more of a scoring touch. Both players are/were well acquainted with the penalty box. The offensive totals Ludzik put up in Junior and the AHL early in his career were exceptional. He averaged over two points per game in Junior and scored 62 points in 73 games for the New Brunswick Hawks before joining the big club in the 1982/83 season. (He might have added to that point total had he not sat in the box for 142 minutes!)
Like Ludzik, it remains to be seen if Morin can continue lighting the lamp on a regular basis in the NHL. Has the “Switch” been flipped? I’ll be willing to wager my eye test against Jen’s stats on this one. C’mon Jen, put your money where your stats are! Actually, and this excites me, can you imagine a Morin/Freddy/Benji fourth line? Let the good times roll! Remember when the announcer said, “Ye gads, this is their fourth line,” while describing Bolland/Freddy/Frolic in 2103.
In conclusion, many moons ago, I noticed four Hispanic fans who happened to be sitting in front of me in the opening game of the Calgary playoffs. I could sense they were not statistical connoisseurs of the game. However, the smile on their faces when someone would get clobbered, or just soaking in the speed and skill of “the game,” was enjoyment in its purest form. Needless to say, Big Buff was a favorite of theirs.
I enjoyed watching their reactions, as much as the scintillating game itself – one of my all-time favorites. They could probably only state one stat at the end of the game, the most important one, the final score. The Hawks emerged with a hard fought 3-2 OT victory.
Martin Havlat tied the game late in the third period, and then potted the OT winner just 0:12 into the extra time. The ensuing “Let’s Go Hawks” cheers reverberated throughout the stairwells and hallways, until the last fans exited the U. C. A tiny center no longer with the Hawks, The Rat, assisted on that game winning goal. Sometimes I wish I could just watch hockey the way those four fans saw it that night. Who gives a rat’s ass if they didn’t know what offside was?!
I think a lot of hockey will always boil down to intangible measures. Sure stats have a place, but to think a geek will control the mayhem on frozen pond is a bit farfetched. Stat freaks remind me of what I once heard about accountants – they tell you how you got to some place by looking out the back window of the car.
Almost to a tee, every knowledgeable Hawk fan seems to think this is a do-or-die moment for Morin, his Little Big Horn moment. Based on the eye test alone, unless he gets traded, Jeremy “Jet” Morin will make a significant contribution the Blackhawks fortunes this upcoming season. In fact, if asked, I believe Morin would say, “I think, I think I can play, I think.”
The “Switch” has been activated. It would be lovely to see you again, my friend, in a Blackhawk jersey.
Rich Lindbloom
